Sunday, June 26, 2016

GDX and Gold Rally is Suspect

The volatility on Friday created a technical aberration.  Still, the overall picture hasn’t changed.


It will also be pretty difficult for Gold to overcome the 50 MONTH moving average, on the first try. 

The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com

Darah


Friday, June 10, 2016

GDX Topping

Very good chance the GDX has topped today, or will next week.  Be watching for gap fills on the way down. Also note, this correction should be much bigger.

The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com

Darah

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Chart of the Day


The market has completed its correction and now on course to new highs. Be watching the next resistance zone between 2130 and 2180.


The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com

Darah

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Market Update

The warning did not come until Thursday, when price had several attempts to rally, but instead dropped to its previous low.  Now after two failures, a third test of the lows would undoubtedly break support and send price in a precipitous decline.

S&P 500- 4 hour chart




Other clues came during the last 2-3 weeks of the advance, when price would accelerate to new highs, but after a few days a minor correction occurred. The pattern now has formed several mini peaks along the way, indicating momentum loss.

S&P 500- 4 hour (chart 2)


 
Technically, since we are still in an uptrend, there is the possibility of a final short-squeeze to higher highs. Anything upward of 20, even 50 points would theoretically take the S&P into May for a top. The result would be a divergent peak, indicating the rally is a bad one. It would also be the best scenario for the bulls - as price would form an even larger top, providing enough time for everyone to get out.  In any case, whether we drop immediately, or continue on, the coming decline should lead to a 2-4 week sell off.

Stay tuned, more to come next week.
Darah

http://thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com

Thursday, July 4, 2013

ALL THE WRONG REASONS!


While most 4th rate analysts unwittingly misdirect you into watching for a big dollar collapse and cling on to its alleged correlation to gold, all you have to do is look back a year and see their relationship is worthless. The gold trade has been an obvious disappointment and its most recent breakdown through 1320 has brought about a ‘think tank’ infested with analysts fetching for all sorts of reasons that seem rational for calling a bottom. None of which are true--and of course these same analysts that tell you to keep an ‘open mind’ are the ones mentally blocked from knowing the characteristics of a downtrend. And they’ve been sending you emails and newsletters for months saying this “JUST MAY BE the TIME” we have reached the final low!

As you all know the reality has been much different, with every rally being met with tremendous selling pressure, giving you no indication of a possible bull market. Did you ever think that once the bull gets underway and reaches 3200, they will all tell you it’s time to get out?? The same crowd of forecasters that were keeping you in at $2000 have ridden the bear “A L L- T H E W A Y- D O W N” to these current levels, still claiming every oversold condition is just a pullback to a much bigger uptrend! I’m sure after 22 months it will be that ‘conspiracy theories of manipulation’ or some ‘finishing wave count’ are the reasons.

Truth is, once you break the apex and have a lower low you add the width of the triangle from the breakdown point to get the measured move. This shoots for a price target of 1200, which is a minimum expectation, but perhaps on the next failing rally we will see a climax low to 1140.

CHART OF GOLD (1)

That also would have price return to the 61.8% area from the lows of 2008 to the highs of September 2011 and a good place for an extreme reversal bar to appear.
Chart of Gold (2)
 
Here too is a potential fold back measured move from the point the trend went parabolic in 2011, to where we are now in the current downtrend. Notice that the parabolic uptrend of 2011 equals the parabolic downtrend of 2013 in size and that it happens to fall in the vicinity of these same target lows. Not to mention, the downside volume is now much lighter which is a sign that most of the selling pressure is being absorbed by central bankers and giant institutions controlling the demand.

CHART OF GOLD (3)
Most people lose money in downtrends because they have no strategy, they become instant long term buyers, and, they must ‘wait it out’ only to recover 70% of their losses, if they’re lucky. Timing the market is not the same as ‘time in’ the market and you should know that after a price base of 4 to 5 weeks your odds of ‘a bottom’ is more likely. Or basically draw a horizontal line from 1200 out, and even with giving five or so percentage points to account for volatility it won’t be a surprise to see in a couple of weeks that price will be trading flat. We are hovering above extremely tough support on all time frames, and once 1350 is regained, the bull market will launch!
The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com

Darah

 


Sunday, April 7, 2013

DOWN AT THE DEPTHS


The price of gold is forming into a sideways base that after several weeks, has experienced minimal downside. This is an encouraging sign because it’s a testament to the metal’s underlying strength. It also provides technical evidence that price has the ability to hold, and that there is indeed, “life on the floor.”

In addition to the array of sentiment and internal indicators that now all point to a major bottom; only one--- focuses on TIMING. The moving average--of gold, stocks, what have you, essentially traces price information of the past, but applied to the present. And a good rule of thumb is to wait for the moving average to catch up, flatten out, and then change direction to confirm a bottom.

But do not ignore price alone. After all, price determines its own fate and the moving average is merely a fine tuning. Together, the two provide a technical interpretation that is more insightful than observing one independently from the other.

The twenty day moving average is a case in point, and perhaps very fitting because it encompasses the short and intermediate term price action. Twenty trading sessions equates to one month of time; and most trendless markets tend to run about six to eight weeks before presenting a directional move.  Overlaid on gold, the slope is not only beginning to arc sideways, but now resisting the most recent decline. To explain this, older (minus) readings are being replaced with newer (positive) readings, which on a time scale of twenty trading days, absorbs a broader development and not so much, the short-term gyrations.

Gold remains very much locked in a basing chamber, both seen by price and a trendless moving average. But all factors included, the current bottom forming is, shall we say, “nearing the end of its time zone.”
The climate down below is improving, and looking favorable, more than it ever has before. The inevitable chain of events is predictable; where price ultimately must leave the ‘basing phase’ to begin trending again. And undoubtedly this will cause the twenty day moving average to rise.


The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com
Darah

Sunday, March 3, 2013

A STOCK MARKET ENDING


The individual stocks of the equities market are no longer keeping pace with the broad averages. A vast number of these stocks have faltered because the trend itself has become ever more selective. What initially started as a robust, broad based rally is now narrow; and can only be supported by a handful of stocks.

The S&P 500, which is greatly exaggerated from its components, and perhaps can push a bit higher, is experiencing its very own reading of ‘number of new highs’ increasingly diminish. This particular statistic is useful during an uptrend because it determines strength, participation rate, and only the initial spotting of a divergence reveals that trouble is brewing.

The reversal however will not come immediately. The trend matures, and its remaining strength allows price to carry on. The divergence that was previously recognized is now deeply engraved and building on all fronts. More and more stocks will be left behind and the few that thrive will become stretched even further. All decisions, rational decisions will be overcome by greed and investors will pile in to chase the last bit of euphoria.  

But ultimately what lies ahead is a dead end, where the climate becomes treacherous. A terrifying, trendless market at formidable resistance begins to emerge. The trend is immobilized and prices then shape into one large distribution top. Then, after enough time sets in, the shaky pattern cracks, the market reverses, and like a flood in destruction, it drags everything in its path!

It’s the beginning of the end, and the stock market ends up fighting a cyclical clock of nature. At every climax, prices are deprived of oxygen and must retrace their journey to lower altitudes. This most recent sideways pattern of heightened volatility, represents a saturated state of exhaustion, which calls for a major topping process that will inevitably fall apart!
S&P 500 v. Number of New Highs
The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com
Darah